Work in progress

Michal Rubaszek, Joscha Beckmann, Marek Kwas, 2022 Are consensus FX forecasts valuable for investors? , Unpublished manuscript (under review) (pdf).

Michal Rubaszek, Joscha Beckmann, Michele Ca' Zorzi, Marek Kwas, 2022. Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates, ECB Working Paper Series 2731 (link).

Michal Rubaszek, Karol Szafranek, 2022. Have European natural gas prices decoupled from crude oil prices? Evidence from TVP-VAR analysis., Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis Working Papers 2022/078 (link).

Most recent publications

Monika Papież, Michał Rubaszek, Karol Szafranek, Sławomir Śmiech, 2022. Are European Natural Gas Markets Connected? A Time-Varying Spillovers Analysis, Resources Policy 79, Article 103029 (link).

Adam Cap, Michele Ca'Zorzi, Andrej Mijakovic and Michal Rubaszek, 2022. The reliability of equilibrium exchange rate models: A forecasting perspective, International Journal of Central Banking, 74: 229-280 (link). Replication files (MatlabCodes). ECONBROWSER blog summary (link). ECB Economic Bulletin 2021/7 version: (link)

Marek Dąbrowski, Monika Papież, Michał Rubaszek, Sławomir Śmiech, 2022. The role of economic development for the effect of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries. Evidence from the interacted panel VAR model, Energy Economics 110, Article 106017 (link).

Fotios Petropoulos at al. (including Michał Rubaszek), 2022. Forecasting: theory and practice, International Journal of Forecasting 38: 705-871. (link). See also the up-to-date version at (

Marek Kwas, Alessia Paccagnnini, Michal Rubaszek, 2022. Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective, Journal of Commodity Markets , Available Online, Article 100240 (link). CAMA WP version (link).

Rachatar Nilavongse, Michal Rubaszek, Karsten Staehr, Gazi Uddin, 2021. Foreign and Domestic Uncertainty Shocks in Four Open Economies. Open Economies Review 32: 933-954 (link).

Michal Rubaszek, Karol Szafranek, Gazi Uddin, 2021. The dynamics and elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis , Energy Economics 103, Article 105526 (link), replication files (MatlabCodes).

Marek Kwas, Alessia Paccagnini, Michał Rubaszek, 2021. Common factors and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective, Resources Policy 74, Article 102319 (link).

Michał Rubaszek, Justyna Rubaszek 2021. Housing Tenure Preferences among Students from Two Polish Universities Real Estate Managment and Valuation , 29(2): 71-83 (link).

Marek Kwas, Michał Rubaszek, 2021. Forecasting commodity prices: Looking for a benchmark Forecasting, 3: 447-459 (link).

Michał Rubaszek, 2021. Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models International Journal of Forecasting, 37: 531-546 (link), replication files (MatlabCodes).

Marcin Kolasa, Michal Rubaszek, Malgorzata Walerych, 2021. Do flexible working hours amplify or stabilize unemployment fluctuations?, European Economic Review 131, Article 103605 (link).

Sławomir Śmiech, Monika Papież, Michał Rubaszek, Małgorzata Snarska, 2021. The role of oil price uncertainty shocks on oil-exporting countries., Energy Economics 93, Article 105028 (link).

Michał Rubaszek, Tomasz Kostyra, 2020. Forecasting the Yield Curve for Poland Econometric Research in Finance 5(2): 103-117 (link)

Michał Rubaszek, Zuzanna Karolak, Marek Kwas, Gazi Salah Uddin, 2020. The role of the threshold effect for the dynamics of futures and spot prices of energy commodities Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics 24(5), Article 2019-0068 (link).

Michal Rubaszek, Margarita Rubio, 2020. Does rental housing market stabilize the economy? A micro and macro perspective Empirical Economics 59(1): 233-257 (link), also University of Nottingham CFCM Discussion Papers version (link)

Michał Rubaszek, Gazi Salah Uddin, 2020. The role of underground storage in the dynamics of the US natural gas market: A threshold model analysis. Energy Economics 87, Article 104713 (link)

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Michał Rubaszek, 2020. Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin, Journal of International Money and Finance 104, Article 102168 (link) and ECONBROWSER blog version (link)

Michal Rubaszek, Zuzanna Karolak, Marek Kwas, 2020. Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective, Resources Policy 65, Article 101538 (link)

Rachatar Nilavongse, Michal Rubaszek, Gazi Salah Uddin, 2020. Economic policy uncertainty shocks, economic activity, and exchange rate adjustments, Economics Letters 186, Article 108765 (link)


Exchange rates

DSGE papers

VAR papers

Commodity markets

Heterogenous agent, life cycle models

Housing market

Labor market papers

Balance of payment

Books, reports and chapters